Biggest Threat to MAGA’s Hold in Virginia

Person wearing a red Make America Great Again hat.

A historic gubernatorial race in Virginia tests the endurance of Trump’s influence as a MAGA candidate struggles in a traditionally Democratic state.

Story Highlights

Virginia’s first all-female gubernatorial race is underway.
Earle-Sears, a Trump-aligned Republican, faces fundraising challenges.
Spanberger, a moderate Democrat, leads in polls and public attention.
The election outcome may signal national political trends.

Historic Gender Milestone in Virginia

The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election is a landmark event, marking the first time both major party nominees for governor are women. Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears are vying for the governorship in a race that carries significant national implications. This historic contest is not only a gender milestone but also a battleground for testing former President Donald Trump’s continuing influence within the Republican Party.

Earle-Sears, a Jamaican-born Republican and current Lieutenant Governor, is struggling to gain traction despite her alignment with Trump’s MAGA movement. The race serves as a litmus test for the durability of Trump’s influence in Virginia, a state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections but remains competitive at the state level.

Fundraising Disparity and National Implications

Abigail Spanberger, a former U.S. Representative known for her moderate stance, leads the race with a commanding financial advantage. As of April 2025, Spanberger’s campaign reported a $7 million lead over Earle-Sears, raising questions about the viability of Republican candidates in battleground states under the MAGA banner. The fundraising gap underscores the challenges Earle-Sears faces in mobilizing resources and support among suburban voters who could decide the election outcome.

The election is the only Republican-held governorship up for grabs in 2025, making it a focal point for both parties. The outcome could influence strategies in future statewide and national elections, particularly regarding the appeal of MAGA-style candidates in suburban and swing areas.

Debate Highlights and Key Issues

The lone debate between Spanberger and Earle-Sears, held in August 2025, highlighted stark differences in policy and vision. Discussions centered around education, gender identity, and the economy, with Earle-Sears emphasizing her conservative values and law-and-order platform. She has garnered endorsements from 81 Virginia sheriffs, bolstering her credentials on public safety issues.

Spanberger, meanwhile, has focused on her bipartisan record and commitment to public education and economic growth. Her campaign has effectively capitalized on the financial edge to maintain visibility and outreach, positioning her as a pragmatic leader capable of transcending partisan divides in this polarized political climate.