Trump’s Controversial Stance on Illegal Immigration and U.S. Economy: What’s the Impact?

At a Glance

Donald Trump claims 100% of new jobs under Biden went to illegal migrants.
Data shows both American-born and foreign-born workforces increased under Biden.
Undocumented immigrants contribute largely to Social Security and Medicare.
Mass deportation of undocumented workers would harm the U.S. economy.

Trump’s Claims on Job Market Impact

Former President Donald Trump consistently argues that illegal immigration significantly impacts the U.S. job market. He states, “100% of the jobs created under this administration has gone to illegal migrants that came into our country.” Trump has employed this claim to highlight the supposed displacement of American workers. However, statistics show that job growth under President Joe Biden has benefited the American-born workforce, with a 6% increase in employed American-born people and a 22% increase in employed foreign-born people.

President Trump has a bold America First Agenda that will get our economy back on track, stop illegal immigration, and make life more affordable. The contrast between him and Kamala Harris could not be more stark. America needs President Trump back in office.…

— Sam Brown (@CaptainSamBrown) September 11, 2024

Trump’s allegations suggest that illegal immigration overly burdens local infrastructures, with communities like Springfield and Aurora being particularly affected. Contrary to these claims, data from the labor department reveals that the foreign-born workers category encompasses various groups, making it impossible to specifically determine the number of undocumented workers. This indicates a degree of complexity in Trump’s generalizations that broad statistics alone do not resolve.

Immigration’s Role in Social Security and Medicare

Trump tends to link the influx of illegal immigrants to a drain on public resources, specifically targeting Social Security and Medicare. He states, “They’re filling up and loading up Social Security, Medicare, with illegal immigrants that have come into our country.” Evidence contradicts this view. By law, only U.S. citizens or lawfully present noncitizens can receive Social Security and Medicare benefits. In 2010 alone, undocumented immigrants paid $13 billion in Social Security payroll taxes; recent estimates suggest they now pay $32.1 billion annually.

Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that recent immigrants without durable status will contribute $443 billion in payroll taxes over the next decade, improving the finances of Social Security and Medicare by approximately $440 billion. Experts, in fact, agree that immigrants improve the solvency of these trust funds.

Economic and Social Outcomes

Trump also ties illegal immigration to higher unemployment and lower wages, particularly affecting African-American and Latino workers. Harvard Professor George J. Borjas, a seasoned immigration researcher, notes that “Decades of record immigration have produced lower wages and higher unemployment for our citizens, especially for African-American and Latino workers.” Despite a degree of validity, this argument overlooks the broader economic benefits, such as the increased total wealth distributed across the population due to immigration.

A comprehensive approach to immigration, such as an earned path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, could boost economic growth, increase GDP, raise wages, and create jobs. This would counter the narrative that mass deportation is beneficial, as it would instead inflict harm on local economies and communities. Immigrants’ contributions to federal, state, and local tax revenues are substantial, reinforcing their role in supporting public services and economic stability.

Donald Trump pledges to protect Social Security and Medicare under his administration, stating, “Unlike the Democrats, who are killing Social Security and Medicare by allowing the invasion of the migrants, I will not, under any circumstance, allow either of these two precious gems to be even touched under a Trump Administration.” This promise leverages the claim of immigration as an economic threat to secure political support while disregarding the documented contributions of immigrants to the system.

Trump’s tax proposals, including a plan to exempt Social Security benefits from income taxes, could have dire financial consequences, costing $1.6 trillion over ten years and hastening the insolvency of Social Security and Medicare. Substantial evidence points towards the need for a balanced and informed approach to immigration policy, highlighting the significant, often overlooked contributions of immigrants to the American economy and public welfare systems.