Analyzing the upcoming U.S. election, Chinese officials express a preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump amidst concerns over the predictability of U.S.-China relations.
At a Glance
- Kamala Harris preferred by Chinese officials for predictable relations.
- Trump’s past presidency marked by unpredictable, emotional policies.
- Bipartisan U.S. approach remains stringent towards China.
- Harris continues Biden’s policies, echoing “Trumpist without the Trump.”
- U.S-China relations expected to be challenging regardless of election outcome.
Chinese Perspective on U.S. Election
Chinese officials are demonstrating a mild preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. elections. This preference is rooted in the desire for more predictable U.S.-China relations. Harris’s potential presidency is seen as a continuation of the Biden administration’s policies, which, although tough, are considered consistent. Conversely, Trump’s previous tenure was marked by emotionally driven and unpredictable policies that spurred tensions between the two nations.
Experts like Jia Qingguo from Peking University and Brian Wong from the University of Hong Kong advise that no substantial change in U.S. policy is expected regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican occupies the White House. Both major political parties in the United States demonstrate a firm stance toward China, signifying ongoing strategic competition and containment efforts. Harris’s alignment with Biden’s economic and trade policies, including high tariffs on Chinese imports, persists in a “Trumpist without the Trump” manner.
#China views #KamalaHarris as a potentially favourable #US President rather than #DonaldTrump.https://t.co/b5ekrWLWMe
— The Federal (@TheFederal_News) October 17, 2024
Potential Impacts on U.S.-China Relations
U.S.-China relations are expected to remain strained, with a potential Trump presidency predicted to heighten economic friction due to trade wars. Harris’s national security team, with influence from figures like Philip Gordon, might view China as a “challenge,” yet continue strategic competition without escalating tensions. Regardless of the election outcome, Chinese strategists prepare for ongoing competition and containment strategies from the U.S.
Beijing’s perception of Taiwan remains a sensitive subject in bilateral relations. Trump’s less predictable approach and possible reduced support for Taiwan based on a business-minded tendency are aspects some Chinese strategists find advantageous. Meanwhile, Harris’s support for Taiwan’s self-defense, while cautious in military commitment, suggests more stability in managing cross-strait tensions.
While China isn’t enamored with either US presidential candidate, conversations in Beijing indicate a clear preference for the continuity of Kamala Harris over the unpredictability of Donald Trump. https://t.co/wyVkiiSn6J
— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) October 17, 2024
Conclusion
Overall, while Kamala Harris is favored over Donald Trump among Chinese officials for ensuring more stable U.S.-China relations, both candidates are viewed as maintaining a tough stance with Beijing. Harris is expected to follow a balanced engagement and competition approach, potentially requiring China to adjust its strategies by emphasizing economic resilience alongside assertive nationalism.
Ultimately, the trajectory of U.S.-China ties post-election remains fraught with potential conflicts and opportunities, underscoring the importance of diplomatic preparedness and strategic foresight on both sides.
Sources:
Taiwan and trade: how China sees its future with the US after the election
Zhou Explores How China Might React to U.S. Foreign Policy in the Post-Election Years
Who does China’s president want to win the U.S. election?